Thu, Dec 24 at 8:15 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
Expected score: HOU 22.1 – PHI 24.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): HOU 2.18 · PHI 1.85
Team ratings (Elo): HOU 1523.4 vs PHI 1486.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
HOU (2-5) — 60 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYG | L | 21-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | JAX | W | 34-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | TEN | W | 26-3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DAL | L | 30-34 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | IND | L | 17-19 |
PHI (2-5) — 59 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 26, 2026 | DAL | L | 21-38 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CAR | L | 14-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-19 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LAR | L | 20-24 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | CHI | L | 7-27 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 16 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 16.
HOU
| Jaylin Noel | Injured Reserve | Noel, who was placed on injured reserve earlier Wednesday, is expected to require surgery to address his toe injury and will miss the remainder of the season, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports. |
| Jalen Pitre | Questionable | questionable |
| David Montgomery | Questionable | questionable |
| Reed Blankenship | Questionable | questionable |
| Blake Fisher | Questionable | questionable |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | Active | Al-Shaair recorded nine tackles (two solo) in a Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Henry To'oTo'o | Active | To'oTo'o notched 10 tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in Sunday's Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| M.J. Stewart | Active | Stewart finished with 12 tackles (five solo), including 0.5 sacks, and a defensed pass in Sunday's overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Foster Moreau | Active | Moreau played 21 offensive snaps and nine special-teams snaps in the Texans' 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Dare Ogunbowale | Active | Ogunbowale didn't record an offensive touch or target in Sunday's 24-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Tank Dell | Active | Dell caught his only target for 43 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Kayshon Boutte | Active | Boutte caught one of two targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss versus the Giants. |
| Marlin Klein | Active | |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | Active | |
| Nate Thomas | Active | |
| Dalton Schultz | Active | Schultz caught five of six targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Active | Hutchinson caught three of six targets for 17 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added 12 rushing yards on two attempts. |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | Active | Fairbairn went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted his only PAT in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Active | Harrison caught one of four targets for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| C.J. Stroud | Active | Stroud completed 17 of 28 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added two rushing attempts for four yards and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Woody Marks | Active | Marks rushed 19 times for 66 yards and caught his only target for 15 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Nico Collins | Active | Collins caught two of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Brevin Jordan | Active | Jordan (foot) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Logan Hall | Active | |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Active |
PHI
| DeVonta Smith | Questionable | Smith (hamstring) missed Thursday's practice. |
| Saquon Barkley | Questionable | Barkley (hamstring/back) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Marcus Epps | Questionable | questionable |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Questionable | Wicks (ankle) isn't participating in Thursday's practice, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. |
| Nolan Smith Jr. | Questionable | Smith (concussion) was listed as a limited participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Michael Carter II | Questionable | Carter (abdomen) was estimated to be a limited participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Jihaad Campbell | Questionable | Campbell (hamstring/quadriceps) didn't participate in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Moro Ojomo | Questionable | questionable |
| Jalyx Hunt | Questionable | questionable |
| Jonathan Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Jonathan Greenard | Questionable | questionable |
| Dameon Pierce | Injured Reserve | The Eagles placed Pierce (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday |
| Jalen Carter | Active | |
| Smael Mondon Jr. | Active | |
| Jake Elliott | Active | Elliott made all three of his PAT attempts and didn't attempt a field goal in Monday's 38-21 loss to the Cowboys. |
| Elijah Mitchell | Active | Mitchell reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday. |
| Jaydon Blue | Active | The Eagles signed Blue from the practice squad to the active roster Wednesday. |
| Cooper DeJean | Active | DeJean recorded seven tackles (three solo) during Monday's 38-21 loss versus the Cowboys. |
| Zack Baun | Active | Baun recorded nine tackles (two solo) and a pass defensed during Monday's 38-21 loss versus the Cowboys. |
| Elijah Moore | Active | Moore caught both of his targets for 16 yards during Monday's 38-21 loss to the Cowboys. |
| Eli Stowers | Active | Stowers failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 loss to Dallas. |
| Darius Cooper | Active | Cooper caught one of three passes for 17 yards during the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday. |
| Jake Majors | Active | |
| Hollywood Brown | Active | Brown secured two of five targets for 30 yards in the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. |
| Dallas Goedert | Active | Goedert secured five of seven targets for 48 yards in the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
52.3°F, wind 9.4 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (HOU): ~1,343 miles, 1h time-zone shift east