Fri, Dec 25 at 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
Expected score: GB 19.6 – CHI 26.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): GB 2.8 · CHI 1.56
Team ratings (Elo): GB 1521.5 vs CHI 1558.7. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
GB (5-3) — 56 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight win)
| Oct 29, 2026 | CAR | W | 27-19 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | DET | L | 17-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | DAL | W | 23-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CHI | W | 31-7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TB | W | 17-14 |
CHI (5-2) — 63 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 22, 2026 | NE | W | 30-24 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ATL | W | 31-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | GB | L | 7-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NYJ | W | 23-12 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | PHI | W | 27-7 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | CHI 19 - GB 20 | GB |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GB 22 - CHI 24 | CHI |
| Dec 7, 2025 | GB 28 - CHI 21 | GB |
| Dec 20, 2025 | CHI 22 - GB 16 | CHI |
| Oct 11, 2026 | GB 31 - CHI 7 | GB |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 16 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 16.
GB
| Christian Watson | Questionable | Watson said he suffered a broken rib in Thursday night's 27-19 win over the Panthers, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reports. |
| Kaleb Johnson | Out | Johnson (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonnu Smith | Out | Smith (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Sean Rhyan | Out | inactive |
| Travis Glover | Out | inactive |
| Donovan Jennings | Out | inactive |
| Zaire Franklin | Out | inactive |
| Micah Parsons | Out | Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said Tuesday that Parsons (knee) has "a chance" to resume practicing next week, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Active | Lloyd rushed three times for seven yards and brought in his only target for nine yards in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Trey Smack | Active | Smack converted three of four extra-point tries and didn't attempt a field goal Thursday in a 27-19 win over Carolina. |
| Jordan Love | Active | Love completed 30 of 41 passes for 288 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and recovered a fumble in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Tucker Kraft | Active | Kraft secured all six targets for 53 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Matthew Golden | Active | Golden brought in seven of 13 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Josh Jacobs | Active | Jacobs rushed 21 times for 39 yards and a touchdown and brought in all six targets for 13 yards and another score in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Devonte Wyatt | Active | Wyatt (ankle) is active for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Keisean Nixon | Active | Nixon (shoulder) is active for Thursday's game against Carolina, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Anthony Campbell | Active | |
| Brenton Cox Jr. | Active | |
| Aaron Banks | Active | |
| Evan Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Lions with nine tackles (five solo) and one pass defense. |
| Isaiah McDuffie | Active | McDuffie logged 11 tackles (six solo), one fumble and one fumble recovery during the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Xavier McKinney | Active | McKinney posted 10 tackles (four solo) during Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Lions. |
| Bo Melton | Active | Melton caught one of his two targets for four yards and logged a 24-yard kickoff return in the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Savion Williams | Active | Williams caught three passes on as many targets for 47 yards and turned two carries into four yards during the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Benjamin St-Juste | Active | St-Juste (hamstring) was estimated as a full participant on Monday's practice report, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
CHI
| Anthony Johnson Jr. | Out | out |
| Kyle Monangai | Questionable | Monangai (thumb/toe) did not practice Thursday. |
| D'Marco Jackson | Questionable | questionable |
| Coby Bryant | Injured Reserve | Coach Ben Johnson said Wednesday that Bryant (knee) will start running again in the "near future," Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jack Sanborn | Questionable | questionable |
| Cole Kmet | Injured Reserve | The Bears placed Kmet (knee) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Malik Muhammad II | Questionable | Muhammad (toe) is doubtful to return to Thursday night's contest against the Patriots. |
| T.J. Edwards | Active | Edwards (hamstring) was considered to be a full participant on the Bears' estimated practice report Thursday. |
| Jeffery Simmons | Active | Simmons was traded to the Bears on Thursday, along with a 2028 fifth-round pick, in exchange for first-round picks in 2027 and 2028, as well as a 2027 fourth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Zavier Scott | Active | Chicago signed Scott from the practice squad to the active roster Tuesday. |
| Jayden Loving | Active | |
| Jordan McFadden | Active | |
| Case Keenum | Active | |
| Kyler Gordon | Active | Gordon recorded five tackles (three solo), including 1.0 sacks, in Thursday's 30-24 win over the Patriots. |
| Dillon Thieneman | Active | Thieneman tallied eight tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in a 30-24 victory versus the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Sam Roush | Active | Roush is expected to get more work on offense after Cole Kmet (knee) landed on injured reserve Friday. |
| Kalif Raymond | Active | Raymond did not catch either of his two targets and returned one punt for seven yards Thursday in a 30-24 win over New England. |
| Roschon Johnson | Active | Johnson rushed twice for 13 yards in the Bears' 30-24 victory over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Montez Sweat | Active | The NFL reinstated Sweat on Friday after he served a two-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy. |
| Rome Odunze | Active | Odunze brought in four of five targets for 69 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Colston Loveland | Active | Loveland secured seven of 12 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown during the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Cairo Santos | Active | Santos went 3-for-4 on field-goal tries and made all three of his extra-point attempts in Thursday's 30-24 win over New England. |
| D'Andre Swift | Active | Swift rushed 22 times for 78 yards and a touchdown and brought in all four targets for 12 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Luther Burden III | Active | Burden brought in all four targets for 130 yards and a touchdown and rushed once for seven yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Caleb Williams | Active | Williams completed 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing five times for 18 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
47.5°F, wind 2.5 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (GB): ~184 miles, no time-zone change