Sun, Dec 27 at 12:00 AM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
Expected score: CIN 21.9 – IND 24.3
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): CIN 2.22 · IND 1.82
Team ratings (Elo): CIN 1486.4 vs IND 1456.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
CIN (4-2) — 62 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | BAL | W | 35-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIA | W | 31-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-22 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PIT | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | HOU | W | 20-6 |
IND (2-5) — 62 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (3 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TEN | L | 20-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PIT | L | 22-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | WSH | W | 30-13 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | HOU | W | 19-17 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 16 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 16.
CIN
| Andrei Iosivas | Injured Reserve | Iosivas (thumb) is making good progress in his rehab, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Joe Giles-Harris | Questionable | questionable |
| Jordan Battle | Questionable | questionable |
| Erick All Jr. | Injured Reserve | Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Wednesday that All has been diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee and will require season-ending surgery, Jay Morrison of SI.com reports. |
| Kyle Dugger | Out | Dugger (quadriceps) won't play in Sunday's game against the Titans, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Active | Chase (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Barrett Carter | Active | Carter recorded nine tackles (three solo) and a pass defense during Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Boye Mafe | Active | Mafe finished Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens with five tackles (three solo), including 1.5 sacks. |
| Bryan Cook | Active | Cook recorded nine tackles (six solo), including 0.5 sacks, during the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | Active | Knight totaled eight tackles (two solo) and an interception during the Bengals' win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Dohnte Meyers | Active | Meyers failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Cam Grandy | Active | The Bengals signed Grandy off the Vikings' practice squad Monday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Connor Lew | Active | |
| Landon Robinson | Active | |
| Shemar Stewart | Active | |
| Myles Hinton | Active | |
| Russ Yeast | Active | |
| Mike Gesicki | Active | Gesicki caught his only target for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Samaje Perine | Active | Perine rushed four times for 16 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Drew Sample | Active | Sample caught both of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Chase Brown | Active | Brown rushed 11 times for 39 yards and brought in four of five targets for 19 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Evan McPherson | Active | McPherson did not attempt a field goal and made all five of his PATs in Sunday's 35-13 win over Baltimore. |
| Joe Burrow | Active | Burrow completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for 12 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Tee Higgins | Active | Higgins secured six of seven targets for 148 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Colbie Young | Active | Young (knee) was not listed on the Bengals' injury report Wednesday. |
IND
| Anthony Gould | Questionable | Gould (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Drew Ogletree | Questionable | Ogletree (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Tyler Warren | Questionable | Warren (groin) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | Injured Reserve | The Colts placed Taylor-Britt on injured reserve Tuesday due to a groin injury, Nathan Brown of The Indianapolis Star reports. |
| Bryce Boettcher | Questionable | questionable |
| Justin Walley | Questionable | According to head coach Shane Steichen, Walley did not return to Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota due to a knee injury, Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan Indianapolis reports. |
| Alec Pierce | Injured Reserve | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Pierce (heel) will "most likely not" have his 21-day practice window opened in Week 8, Jake Arthur of Roundtable.io reports. |
| Sauce Gardner | Active | Gardner (calf) practiced in full Thursday. |
| Matt Goncalves | Active | |
| Tim Smith | Active | |
| Jonathan Taylor | Active | Taylor told reporters Thursday that he hasn't requested a trade out of Indianapolis, Stephen Holder of ESPN.com reports. "I haven't heard anything, and I can't control that," Taylor said regarding the possibility of being traded. "Obviously, you guys know that I'm always proud to wear the horseshoe, proud to be here." |
| CJ Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was listed as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Josh Downs | Active | Downs formally requested a trade from the Colts on Wednesday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports. |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | Active | Davis-Gaither recorded seven tackles (three solo) in Sunday's loss to Minnesota. |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | Active | Adebawore finished Sunday's loss to Minnesota with five tackles (four solo), including 2.0 sacks, and a defensed pass. |
| A.J. Haulcy | Active | Haulcy produced nine tackles (five solo) in a loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| DJ Giddens | Active | Giddens did not play a single snap during Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Will Mallory | Active | Mallory did not catch any of his three targets during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota. |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Active | Alie-Cox failed to haul in either of his targets during the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Laquon Treadwell | Active | Treadwell caught both of his targets for 19 yards in the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Seth McGowan | Active | McGowan turned 11 carries into 46 yards, caught his only target for two yards and added 140 yards as a kick returner during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Keenan Allen | Active | Allen caught all three of his targets for 31 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Riley Leonard | Active | |
| Dalton Tucker | Active | |
| Daniel Jones | Active | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said that Jones will remain the team's starting quarterback in Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Mike Chappell of Fox 59 News Indianapolis reports. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (CIN): ~99 miles, no time-zone change