Sun, Dec 27 at 12:00 AM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Expected score: TB 19.7 – ATL 26.5
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): TB 2.76 · ATL 1.57
Team ratings (Elo): TB 1457.9 vs ATL 1490.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
TB (2-5) — 62 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CAR | W | 43-13 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PIT | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | DAL | W | 24-16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | GB | L | 14-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIN | L | 16-23 |
ATL (3-4) — 62 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SF | W | 29-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CHI | L | 23-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | BAL | L | 23-30 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | NO | W | 45-24 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | GB | W | 35-14 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2024 | ATL 36 - TB 30 | ATL |
| Oct 27, 2024 | TB 26 - ATL 31 | ATL |
| Sep 7, 2025 | ATL 20 - TB 23 | TB |
| Dec 11, 2025 | TB 28 - ATL 29 | ATL |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 16 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 16.
TB
| Luke Goedeke | Questionable | Goedeke (calf) did not participate at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Emeka Egbuka | Questionable | Egbuka (concussion) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Kenny Gainwell | Questionable | Gainwell (hip) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Josh Hayes | Injured Reserve | Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| Christian Rozeboom | Injured Reserve | Rozeboom (finger) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Josiah Trotter | Active | Trotter (illness) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Yaya Diaby | Active | |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | Active | Winfield (ribs) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Baker Mayfield | Active | Mayfield, who was a full practice participant Wednesday, said that he's still taking a day-by-day approach when it comes to wearing a glove to protect his dislocated right thumb, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Tykee Smith | Active | Smith posted seven tackles (one solo), an interception and a blocked extra-point attempt Sunday in a 43-13 Week 7 win against Carolina. |
| Ted Hurst III | Active | Hurst didn't record a catch on one target in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Jalon Daniels | Active | Daniels was back in his primary reserve role behind Baker Mayfield in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Billy Schrauth | Active | |
| DeMonte Capehart | Active | |
| Ayden Garnes | Active | |
| Cade Otton | Active | Otton failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Sean Tucker | Active | Tucker rushed seven times for 52 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win against Carolina. |
| Tez Johnson | Active | Johnson caught both of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Active | Godwin secured four of five targets for 27 yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. |
| Chase McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin made both of his field-goal tries while going 5-for-5 on PATs during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Bucky Irving | Active | Irving rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns while bringing in one of two targets for four yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. He also committed a fumble that stayed with Tampa Bay. |
| Zyon McCollum | Active | McCollum (illness) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Panthers, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| David Sills V | Active | Sills (hamstring) was activated from injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Calijah Kancey | Active | |
| Benjamin Morrison | Active | Morrison (quadriceps) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
ATL
| A.J. Terrell Jr. | Questionable | Terrell (groin) was limited during Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| C.J. Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (groin) was limited in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Kendal Daniels | Questionable | Daniels (Achilles) was limited in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Divine Deablo | Questionable | Deablo (forearm) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Questionable | Zaccheaus (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Cameron Thomas | Questionable | questionable |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Questionable | Robinson (hamstring) did not practice Thursday for the second day in a row, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. |
| Charles Snowden | Questionable | questionable |
| Jawaan Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| LaCale London | Questionable | questionable |
| Samson Ebukam | Questionable | questionable |
| Avieon Terrell | Questionable | questionable |
| Billy Bowman Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Xavier Watts | Active | Watts notched seven tackles (three solo) and forced a fumble Sunday in a 29-20 Week 7 victory against the 49ers. |
| Jessie Bates III | Active | Bates registered nine tackles (two solo), two defensed passes (including an interception) and one forced fumble Sunday in a 29-20 victory over San Francisco. |
| Harold Perkins Jr. | Active | Perkins tallied nine tackles (four solo) in Sunday's 29-20 Week 7 win over the 49ers. |
| Zachariah Branch | Active | Branch brought in one of two targets for nine yards, logged an eight-yard carry and returned his lone kickoff for 61 yards during the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Austin Hooper | Active | Hooper caught both of his targets for 21 yards in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Jahan Dotson | Active | Dotson caught one pass on three targets for six yards during Sundays' 29-20 win over San Francisco. |
| Nick Muse | Active | Muse caught both of his targets for two yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Khalil Herbert | Active | Herbert reverted to the Falcons' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Jack Strand | Active | |
| Andy Dalton | Active | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | Active | Pitts brought in all five targets for 22 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Active | Penix completed 25 of 34 passes for 213 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions and added five carries for minus-1 yard in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. He also recovered a fumble. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (TB): ~420 miles, no time-zone change