Sun, Dec 27 at 4:05 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
Expected score: TEN 19.6 – LV 26.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): TEN 2.78 · LV 1.56
Team ratings (Elo): TEN 1379.1 vs LV 1414.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
TEN (1-6) — 63 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | IND | W | 26-20 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | HOU | L | 3-26 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BAL | L | 18-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NYG | L | 7-12 |
LV (3-4) — 63 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (4 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LAR | L | 21-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | BUF | L | 30-33 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NE | L | 17-45 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | KC | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NO | W | 35-27 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2025 | LV 20 - TEN 10 | LV |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 16 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 16.
TEN
| Calvin Ridley | Questionable | Ridley (hip) was limited at practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Tyjae Spears | Questionable | Spears (knee) isn't practicing Thursday, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Carnell Tate | Questionable | Tate (shoulder) won't practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| John Franklin-Myers | Questionable | questionable |
| Tommy Townsend | Questionable | Titans head coach Robert Saleh said Monday that Townsend is still being evaluated after sustaining a left knee injury in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Dorian Mausi | Injured Reserve | The Titans opened Mausi's 21-day practice window Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official website reports. |
| Jonah Laulu | Active | The Titans claimed Laulu off waivers from the Raiders on Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Amani Hooker | Active | Hooker posted five tackles (two solo) during Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | Active | Winston logged 14 tackles (eight solo) during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | Active | Hill logged 12 tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Elic Ayomanor | Active | Ayomanor caught three of his seven targets for 44 yards in the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Jaylon Jones | Active | |
| Kylen Granson | Active | |
| Jackie Marshall | Active | |
| Nicholas Singleton | Active | |
| Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson | Active | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Active | Robinson caught four of seven targets for seven yards during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Gunnar Helm | Active | Helm caught three of four targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Cam Ward | Active | Ward completed 20 of 31 passes for 181 yards with an interception in Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. He added five yards on two carries. |
| Tony Pollard | Active | Pollard carried the ball 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. He also caught all three of his targets for 26 yards. |
| Joey Slye | Active | Slye made his only field-goal attempt while going 3-for-3 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Tony Adams | Active | Adams (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns. |
| Timmy Horne | Active | The Titans signed Horne from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. |
| Alontae Taylor | Active | |
| Joshua Williams | Active | The Titans activated Williams (pectoral) from reserve/PUP on Saturday. |
LV
| Ian Thomas | Questionable | Thomas (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Thursday. |
| Jack Bech | Injured Reserve | Bech (forearm) practiced fully Thursday. |
| Jackson Powers-Johnson | Questionable | questionable |
| Patrick Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (neck) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Anthony Galaviz of The Fresno Bee reports. |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | Questionable | questionable |
| DJ Glaze | Questionable | questionable |
| Brock Bowers | Active | Bowers (calf) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Quay Walker | Active | |
| Jeremy Chinn | Active | Chinn finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to the Rams with seven tackles (three solo). He also recovered a fumble. |
| Nakobe Dean | Active | Dean produced 12 tackles and an interception in Sunday's loss to the Rams. |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | Active | The Raiders reinstated Thornton (hamstring) from injured reserve Tuesday. |
| Cody White | Active | White caught one of three targets for four yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Fernando Mendoza | Active | Mendoza did not appear in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Jalen Nailor | Active | Nailor caught two of five targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Kirk Cousins | Active | Head coach Klint Kubiak said that Cousins will remain the Raiders' starting quarterback heading into Sunday's game against the Jets, Paul Gutierrez of the team's official site reports. "There is no controversy," Kubiak said. "He is playing at a very high level." |
| Thomas Booker IV | Active | |
| Dalton Johnson | Active | |
| Tristin McCollum | Active | |
| Cian Slone | Active | |
| Bryce Cabeldue | Active | |
| Tre Tucker | Active | Tucker secured five of 12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Michael Mayer | Active | Mayer caught all three targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Mike Washington Jr. | Active | Washington rushed six times for 27 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Ashton Jeanty | Active | Jeanty rushed eight times for 15 yards and brought in all eight targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Aidan O'Connell | Active | O'Connell (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Raiders' emergency third quarterback against the Rams on Sunday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (TEN): ~1,580 miles, 2h time-zone shift west