Sun, Dec 27 at 8:20 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
Expected score: JAX 24.4 – DAL 21.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): JAX 1.81 · DAL 2.23
Team ratings (Elo): JAX 1576.0 vs DAL 1474.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
JAX (4-2) — 70 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 18, 2026 | HOU | L | 31-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PHI | W | 19-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CIN | W | 22-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NE | W | 35-6 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DEN | L | 13-20 |
DAL (3-4) — 62 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 26, 2026 | PHI | W | 38-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | GB | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | TB | L | 16-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | HOU | W | 34-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BAL | L | 31-34 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 16 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 16.
JAX
| Antonio Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (ankle) sat out practice both Wednesday and Thursday. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Jakobi Meyers | Questionable | Meyers (hamstring) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jahlani Tavai | Questionable | questionable |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | Questionable | questionable |
| Anton Harrison | Injured Reserve | Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| Ross Matiscik | Questionable | questionable |
| Montaric Brown | Active | Brown (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Foyesade Oluokun | Active | Oluokun logged eight tackles (four solo) in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans in London on Sunday. |
| Josh Cameron | Active | Cameron didn't garner a target and recorded 46 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Cam Little | Active | Little made his sole field-goal attempt and all four of his PATs in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans on Sunday in London. |
| Nate Boerkircher | Active | Boerkircher caught both of his targets for eight yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Jalen Huskey | Active | |
| Albert Regis | Active | |
| Wesley Williams | Active | |
| CJ Williams | Active | |
| Brenton Strange | Active | Strange caught five of seven targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Active | Rodriguez rushed 11 times for 55 yards while failing to reel in his only target during Sunday's 34-31 loss to Houston. |
| Travis Hunter | Active | Hunter caught all four of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. He also recorded three tackles and an interception. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Active | Thomas didn't haul in either of his two targets during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. |
| Parker Washington | Active | Washington caught four of 11 targets for 64 yards in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Trevor Lawrence | Active | Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. He added 11 rushing yards on three carries. |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Active | Tuten carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards and caught all four of his targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Ameer Abdullah | Active | |
| Eric Murray | Active | Murray (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans. |
DAL
| Quinnen Williams | Questionable | Williams (hamstring) practiced in a limited fashion Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Caleb Downs | Questionable | Downs (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Dee Winters | Questionable | Winters (calf) didn't practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| KaVontae Turpin | Questionable | Turpin (ribs) was a non-participant in practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Jonathan Bullard | Injured Reserve | Bullard (calf) was designated to return from injured reserve by the Cowboys on Thursday. |
| George Pickens | Questionable | Pickens (shoulder/hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. |
| Luke Schoonmaker | Questionable | questionable |
| Drew Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| P.J. Locke | Injured Reserve | Locke (foot) has been downgraded from questionable to out for Monday's game against the Eagles. |
| Marist Liufau | Injured Reserve | Liufau (forearm) has been downgraded from questionable to out ahead of Monday night's game against the Eagles. |
| Brandon Aubrey | Active | Aubrey made all three of his field-goal attempts and all three PAT tries in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| DeMarvion Overshown | Active | Overshown posted six tackles (five solo) and two pass defenses (including one interception) during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Jake Ferguson | Active | Ferguson failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyler Goodson | Active | Goodson turned 10 carries into 38 yards and returned two kickoffs for 42 yards during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Active | Spann-Ford finished with two catches for 11 yards on two targets in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyrus Wheat | Active | |
| Ryan Flournoy | Active | Flournoy secured all four targets for 70 yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Javonte Williams | Active | Williams rushed 25 times for 155 yards and a touchdown in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Dak Prescott | Active | Prescott completed 15 of 27 passes for 212 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for eight yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. He also had a two-point conversion run. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Active | Lamb brought in five of 12 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Cobie Durant | Active | Durant (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against Philadelphia, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Broderick Jones | Active | |
| Tyler Guyton | Active | |
| Juanyeh Thomas | Active | Thomas was signed to the Cowboys' active roster Tuesday. |
| James Houston | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (JAX): ~925 miles, 1h time-zone shift west