Mon, Dec 28 at 8:15 PM ET · Ford Field
Expected score: NYG 18.5 – DET 27.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): NYG 3.17 · DET 1.46
Team ratings (Elo): NYG 1453.6 vs DET 1522.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
NYG (4-2-1) — 64 days rest
Last 5: 3-1-1 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | HOU | W | 27-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NO | L | 27-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | WSH | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | ARI | W | 36-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | TEN | W | 12-7 |
DET (4-2) — 64 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | GB | W | 20-17 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | ARI | W | 45-21 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CAR | L | 26-32 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NYJ | W | 31-24 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | BUF | L | 31-41 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | DET 34 - NYG 27 | DET |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 16 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 16.
NYG
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Injured Reserve | The Giants placed Tracy (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports. |
| Theo Johnson | Questionable | questionable |
| Marcus Mbow | Questionable | questionable |
| Greg Newsome II | Questionable | questionable |
| Jevon Holland | Questionable | questionable |
| Cam Skattebo | Questionable | Skattebo is expected to "OK" after tweaking his hamstring on a 42-yard run in overtime during Sunday's 27-21 win over the Texans, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. |
| Tremaine Edmunds | Injured Reserve | Edmunds (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports. |
| Devin Singletary | Active | Singletary is expected to handle a bigger role out of the Giants' backfield after Tyrone Tracy (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports. |
| Arvell Reese | Active | Reese posted seven tackles (five solo), including 0.5 sacks, in Sunday's 27-21 overtime victory against the Texans. |
| Micah McFadden | Active | McFadden notched 10 tackles (all solo) in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win against the Texans. |
| Greg Desrosiers Jr. | Active | The Giants signed Desrosiers off the Chargers' practice squad Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Darnell Mooney | Active | Mooney caught one of three targets for four yards and rushed once for three yards during Sunday's 27-21 overtime win against the Texans. |
| Jameis Winston | Active | Winston turned four carries into four yards and a touchdown during the Giants' 27-21 overtime win over the Texans on Sunday. |
| Dominic Zvada | Active | Head coach John Harbaugh reiterated Monday that he's confident in Zvada and said that the Giants have no plans to work out other kickers, Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News reports. |
| Nikko Reed | Active | |
| Josh Sills | Active | |
| Jake Haener | Active | |
| Isaiah Likely | Active | Likely caught two of four targets for 12 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. |
| Malachi Fields | Active | Fields caught four of five targets for 83 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over Houston. |
| J.J. McCarthy | Active | McCarthy completed 20 of 28 passes for 252 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. He added one yard on his only carry. |
| Malik Nabers | Active | Nabers caught seven of nine targets for 111 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. |
| Jermaine Eluemunor | Active | Eluemunor (calf) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Tyler Nubin | Active | Nubin (neck) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Paulson Adebo | Active | Adebo (knee) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Andrew Thomas | Active | Thomas (groin) does not have an injury designation against the Texans on Sunday. |
DET
| Kerby Joseph | Out | Joseph (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | Questionable | Rakestraw (ankle) is not believed to be dealing with a major injury after he was forced to exit Sunday's win over the Packers, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| Ben Bartch | Injured Reserve | The Lions placed Bartch (foot) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Devin White | Injured Reserve | The Lions placed White (forearm) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Tom Kennedy | Injured Reserve | The Lions placed Kennedy (knee) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Tyleik Williams | Active | |
| Jacob Saylors | Active | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Active | St. Brown (ankle) practiced in full Thursday. |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Active | Gibbs (shoulder) practiced fully Thursday. |
| Jack Campbell | Active | Campbell tallied 11 tackles (eight solo) during the Lions' 20-17 win over the Packers on Sunday. |
| Brian Branch | Active | Branch recorded four tackles (one solo) and an interception during Sunday's 20-17 win over Green Bay. |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Active | TeSlaa caught one of his two targets for 10 yards in the Lions' 20-17 win over the Packers on Sunday. |
| Jackson Meeks | Active | |
| Bishop Fitzgerald | Active | |
| Ahmed Hassanein | Active | |
| Mekhi Wingo | Active | |
| Seth McLaughlin | Active | |
| Sam LaPorta | Active | LaPorta caught one of two targets for 18 yards in Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers. |
| Jameson Williams | Active | Williams caught five of nine targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 20-17 win over Green Bay. |
| Jared Goff | Active | Goff completed 22 of 32 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers. |
| Jake Bates | Active | Bates went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers. |
| Cade Mays | Active | Mays (wrist) was activated from injured reserve Saturday and no longer has an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Packers. |
| Rock Ya-Sin | Active | Ya-Sin (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Packers. |
| DeAndre Carter | Active | The Lions signed Carter to the active roster Thursday. |
| DJ Wonnum | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (NYG): ~475 miles, no time-zone change