Thu, Dec 31 at 8:15 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
Expected score: BAL 21.1 – CIN 25.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): BAL 2.39 · CIN 1.72
Team ratings (Elo): BAL 1493.9 vs CIN 1486.4. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
BAL (4-3) — 67 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CIN | L | 13-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CLE | L | 10-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | ATL | W | 30-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TEN | W | 24-18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DAL | W | 34-31 |
CIN (4-2) — 67 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | BAL | W | 35-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIA | W | 31-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-22 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PIT | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | HOU | W | 20-6 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2024 | CIN 38 - BAL 41 | BAL |
| Nov 7, 2024 | BAL 35 - CIN 34 | BAL |
| Nov 27, 2025 | BAL 14 - CIN 32 | CIN |
| Dec 14, 2025 | CIN 0 - BAL 24 | BAL |
| Oct 25, 2026 | BAL 13 - CIN 35 | CIN |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
BAL
| Olaivavega Ioane | Questionable | Ioane (knee) was a limited participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Tampa | Injured Reserve | Tampa (knee) was a full participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| Roquan Smith | Questionable | Smith (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Kyle Hamilton | Questionable | Hamilton (knee) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Lamar Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports. |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | Questionable | Hawkins (knee) was a non-participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Adam Randall | Injured Reserve | The Ravens opened Randall's (neck) 21-day practice window Wednesday. |
| John Simpson | Questionable | questionable |
| Tavius Robinson | Injured Reserve | The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Broderick Washington Jr. | Active | Washington (ankle) logged a full practice Thursday. |
| Ronnie Stanley | Active | Stanley (toe) practiced in full Thursday. |
| John Jenkins | Active | |
| Josh Cuevas | Active | Cuevas caught two of three targets for 35 yards during the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | Active | Lane caught three of five targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Justice Hill | Active | Hill took three carries for seven yards and caught three of four targets for 26 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss versus the Bengals. |
| Rashod Bateman | Active | Bateman caught two of four targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Andrew Vorhees | Active | |
| Elijah Sarratt | Active | |
| Mark Andrews | Active | Andrews caught three of four targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Tyler Huntley | Active | Huntley completed 23 of 34 passes for 298 yards with a touchdown and an interception while adding three rushes for 12 yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Tyler Loop | Active | Loop went 2-for-2 on field-goal tries and made his only PAT during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Derrick Henry | Active | Henry rushed 17 times for 45 yards and brought in one of two target for four yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Zay Flowers | Active | Flowers brought in eight of 11 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Cam Jurgens | Active | Jurgens (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Bengals. |
| Matt Hibner | Active | Hibner (hand) was a full participant at practice Thursday. |
CIN
| Andrei Iosivas | Injured Reserve | Iosivas (thumb) is making good progress in his rehab, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Joe Giles-Harris | Questionable | questionable |
| Jordan Battle | Questionable | questionable |
| Erick All Jr. | Injured Reserve | Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Wednesday that All has been diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee and will require season-ending surgery, Jay Morrison of SI.com reports. |
| Kyle Dugger | Out | Dugger (quadriceps) won't play in Sunday's game against the Titans, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Active | Chase (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Barrett Carter | Active | Carter recorded nine tackles (three solo) and a pass defense during Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Boye Mafe | Active | Mafe finished Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens with five tackles (three solo), including 1.5 sacks. |
| Bryan Cook | Active | Cook recorded nine tackles (six solo), including 0.5 sacks, during the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | Active | Knight totaled eight tackles (two solo) and an interception during the Bengals' win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Dohnte Meyers | Active | Meyers failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Cam Grandy | Active | The Bengals signed Grandy off the Vikings' practice squad Monday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Connor Lew | Active | |
| Landon Robinson | Active | |
| Shemar Stewart | Active | |
| Myles Hinton | Active | |
| Russ Yeast | Active | |
| Mike Gesicki | Active | Gesicki caught his only target for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Samaje Perine | Active | Perine rushed four times for 16 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Drew Sample | Active | Sample caught both of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Chase Brown | Active | Brown rushed 11 times for 39 yards and brought in four of five targets for 19 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Evan McPherson | Active | McPherson did not attempt a field goal and made all five of his PATs in Sunday's 35-13 win over Baltimore. |
| Joe Burrow | Active | Burrow completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for 12 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Tee Higgins | Active | Higgins secured six of seven targets for 148 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Colbie Young | Active | Young (knee) was not listed on the Bengals' injury report Wednesday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
46.8°F, wind 4.5 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (BAL): ~423 miles, no time-zone change