Sun, Jan 3 at 12:00 AM ET · Gillette Stadium
Expected score: DEN 20.7 – NE 25.5
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): DEN 2.5 · NE 1.67
Team ratings (Elo): DEN 1603.8 vs NE 1608.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
DEN (5-2) — 69 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | ARI | W | 30-16 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | SEA | W | 17-14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LAC | W | 23-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SF | L | 14-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAR | W | 30-26 |
NE (4-3) — 72 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 22, 2026 | CHI | L | 24-30 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NYJ | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LV | W | 45-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BUF | W | 29-26 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | JAX | L | 6-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
DEN
| Talanoa Hufanga | Questionable | Hufanga (ankle) did not participate at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Zach Allen | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was a limited participant at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Jaylen Waddle | Questionable | Waddle (chest) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| RJ Harvey | Questionable | Harvey (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Brandon Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Garett Bolles | Questionable | questionable |
| Tyler Badie | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Badie (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonah Elliss | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Elliss (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | Active | Mims (ankle) practiced fully Thursday,Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports. |
| Pat Surtain II | Active | Surtain (ankle) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Alex Singleton | Active | Singleton recorded 19 tackles (12 solo) including 1.0 sacks during Sunday's 30-16 win at Arizona. |
| Evan Engram | Active | Engram caught one of three targets for two yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Troy Franklin | Active | Franklin failed to bring in either of his two targets in the Broncos' 30-16 win over the Cardinals on Sunday. |
| Kage Casey | Active | |
| Tyler Onyedim | Active | |
| Jordan Jackson | Active | |
| Dallen Bentley | Active | |
| Courtland Sutton | Active | Sutton caught three of five targets for 45 yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Jonah Coleman | Active | Coleman (ankle) rushed nine times for 54 yards and caught both of his targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| J.K. Dobbins | Active | Dobbins rushed six times for 23 yards and a touchdown and wasn't targeted in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Bo Nix | Active | Nix completed 15 of 29 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 73 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Wil Lutz | Active | Lutz went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Sam Ehlinger | Active | Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the emergency third quarterback in Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Jonathon Cooper | Active | Cooper had his roster exemption removed by the Broncos on Saturday and is available for Sunday's road game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | Active | Abrams-Draine recorded six tackles (four solo), three pass breakups, including an interception, and one forced fumble in Thursday night's 17-14 overtime win over the Seahawks. |
NE
| TreVeyon Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (illness) did not practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| A.J. Brown | Questionable | Brown (ankle/knee) was officially listed as a non-participant at Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Morgan Moses | Questionable | questionable |
| DaQuan Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Ben Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | Injured Reserve | Vera-Tucker (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Channing Canada | Active | Canada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Karon Prunty | Active | Prunty (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Carlton Davis III | Active | Davis (neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Joshua Farmer | Active | |
| Behren Morton | Active | |
| Marcus Jones | Active | Jones registered nine tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, and returned one punt for 19 yards in Thursday's loss to the Bears. |
| Christian Elliss | Active | Elliss tallied 13 tackles (eight solo) in a Week 7 loss to Chicago on Thursday. |
| Kyle Williams | Active | Williams returned two kickoffs for 47 yards and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Corey Kiner | Active | Kiner rushed four times for 13 yards in Thursday's Week 7 loss to Chicago. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards. |
| Eli Raridon | Active | Raridon caught three of four targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in Thursday's Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Efton Chism III | Active | Chism caught his sole target for 16 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| DeMario Douglas | Active | Douglas caught three of his four targets for 23 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Hunter Henry | Active | Henry secured all seven targets for 71 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Andy Borregales | Active | Borregales made his only field-goal attempt and was successful on all three extra-point tries Thursday in a Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Active | Stevenson rushed six times for 22 yards and brought in all five targets for 93 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Drake Maye | Active | Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding four rushes for 26 yards and another score in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Craig Woodson | Active | Woodson (shoulder) is officially active for Thursday's game against the Bears. |
| Kevin Byard | Active | Byard (chest) is officially active for Thursday's game at Chicago. |
| Christian Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez (illness) is listed as active for Thursday night's game against the Bears. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.4°F, wind 6.5 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (DEN): ~1,758 miles, 2h time-zone shift east