Sun, Jan 3 at 12:00 AM ET · SoFi Stadium
Expected score: KC 21.6 – LAC 24.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): KC 2.28 · LAC 1.78
Team ratings (Elo): KC 1496.2 vs LAC 1474.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
KC (5-1) — 69 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SEA | L | 3-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAC | W | 22-6 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LV | W | 30-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIA | W | 24-10 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | IND | W | 33-30 |
LAC (0-6) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 18, 2026 | KC | L | 6-22 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DEN | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SEA | L | 23-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BUF | L | 16-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LV | L | 14-26 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2024 | LAC 10 - KC 17 | KC |
| Dec 8, 2024 | KC 19 - LAC 17 | KC |
| Sep 5, 2025 | LAC 27 - KC 21 | LAC |
| Dec 14, 2025 | KC 13 - LAC 16 | LAC |
| Oct 18, 2026 | KC 22 - LAC 6 | KC |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
KC
| Mansoor Delane | Questionable | Delane (shoulder) did not practice Thursday. |
| Rashee Rice | Questionable | Rice (hamstring/knee) remained a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Travis Kelce | Questionable | Kelce (ankle) was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jaylon Moore | Questionable | Moore (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | Out | The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday. |
| L'Jarius Sneed | Questionable | questionable |
| Brashard Smith | Injured Reserve | The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Cyrus Allen | Active | Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Allen will "get a little bit more [snaps]" during Sunday's game against the Broncos, Nate Taylor of ESPN.com reports. |
| Harrison Butker | Active | Head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Butker will "probably" serve as the Chiefs' kicker in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports. |
| Chamarri Conner | Active | Conner finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to Seattle with seven tackles (two solo). |
| Nohl Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 10 tackles (four solo) and one interception. |
| Nick Bolton | Active | Bolton registered 11 tackles (six solo) during the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. |
| Drue Tranquill | Active | Tranquill finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 12 tackles (four solo). |
| Andrew Armstrong | Active | Armstrong caught one of two targets for three yards during Sunday night's 20-3 loss to Seattle. |
| Noah Gray | Active | Gray caught three passes on as many targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Emmett Johnson | Active | Johnson caught two of three passes for 17 yards and returned three kickoffs for 81 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He also added two tackles on special teams. |
| Ben VanSumeren | Active | |
| Jack Pyburn | Active | |
| Jadon Canady | Active | |
| Xavier Worthy | Active | Worthy caught three of six targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Active | Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards. |
| Kenneth Walker III | Active | Walker rushed 14 times for 36 yards while catching four of five targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Garrett Nussmeier | Active | Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday night's game against the Seahawks. |
| Cooper McDonald | Active | The Chiefs activated McDonald (knee) from injured reserve Saturday. |
| Jaydn Ott | Active | The Chiefs signed Ott from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday. |
LAC
| Brenen Thompson | Questionable | Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring) did not practice Thursday. |
| Donte Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Tre' Harris | Questionable | Harris (hamstring) remained limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ladd McConkey | Questionable | McConkey (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Denzel Perryman | Injured Reserve | Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Deane Leonard | Questionable | Leonard (concussion) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Derwin James Jr. | Doubtful | James (hamstring) suffered a setback in his recovery and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Rams, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports. |
| Rodney Shelley | Questionable | questionable |
| Kayode Awosika | Questionable | questionable |
| Bud Dupree | Active | Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday. |
| Joe Alt | Active | Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday. |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Active | Lambert-Smith caught five of nine targets for 32 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss at Kansas City. He also lost a fumble. |
| Cameron Dicker | Active | Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Charlie Kolar | Active | Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Kimani Vidal | Active | Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Keaton Mitchell | Active | Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Quentin Johnston | Active | Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Justin Herbert | Active | Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards. |
| Omarion Hampton | Active | Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Daiyan Henley | Active | Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs. |
| Jamaree Caldwell | Active | |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | Active | |
| Kendall Williamson | Active | |
| Elijah Molden | Active | |
| Justin Eboigbe | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
76.8°F, wind 4.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (KC): ~1,366 miles, 2h time-zone shift west