Sun, Jan 3 at 12:00 AM ET · Raymond James Stadium
Expected score: LAR 24.0 – TB 22.2
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LAR 1.87 · TB 2.15
Team ratings (Elo): LAR 1547.9 vs TB 1457.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LAR (3-4) — 69 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LV | W | 35-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ARI | L | 16-18 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | BUF | L | 34-37 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | PHI | W | 24-20 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DEN | L | 26-30 |
TB (2-5) — 69 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CAR | W | 43-13 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PIT | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | DAL | W | 24-16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | GB | L | 14-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIN | L | 16-23 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | LAR 34 - TB 7 | LAR |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
LAR
| Colby Parkinson | Questionable | Parkinson (ribs) didn't practice Thursday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. |
| Nate Landman | Questionable | Landman (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| Trent McDuffie | Questionable | McDuffie (groin) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| Coleman Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| Joe Cardona | Questionable | questionable |
| Terrance Ferguson | Injured Reserve | Ferguson (ankle) won't return to practice this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. |
| Davante Adams | Injured Reserve | Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that Adams had successful surgery on his left hamstring, and the Rams are hopeful that the wide receiver will be able to return on the early side of his 6-to-10-week recovery timetable, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports. |
| Myles Garrett | Injured Reserve | Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that the Rams won't open Garrett's (knee) practice window this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. |
| Kam Curl | Active | Curl logged four tackles (two solo) during the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Quentin Lake | Active | Lake finished Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders with seven tackles (four solo). |
| Jordan Whittington | Active | Whittington wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Tutu Atwell | Active | Atwell wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Konata Mumpfield | Active | Mumpfield caught one of two targets for 15 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Higbee | Active | Higbee caught two of three targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Bill Murray | Active | |
| Max Klare | Active | |
| Keagen Trost | Active | |
| Matthew Stafford | Active | Stafford completed 23 of 29 passes for 195 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and rushed three times for minus-3 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Blake Corum | Active | Corum rushed 17 times for 93 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for eight yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davis Allen | Active | Allen caught four of five targets for 20 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Kyren Williams | Active | Williams rushed 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 22 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. He also lost a fumble. |
| Puka Nacua | Active | Nacua brought in eight of 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown and rushed twice for 10 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Brandon McManus | Active | McManus did not attempt a field goal and went 5-for-5 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Jaylen Watson | Active | |
| Ty Simpson | Active | Simpson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Rams' emergency third quarterback against the Raiders on Sunday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. |
TB
| Emeka Egbuka | Questionable | Egbuka (concussion/foot) was not practicing Friday, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports. |
| Luke Goedeke | Questionable | Goedeke (calf) did not participate at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Kenny Gainwell | Questionable | Gainwell (hip) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Josh Hayes | Injured Reserve | Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| Christian Rozeboom | Injured Reserve | Rozeboom (finger) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Josiah Trotter | Active | Trotter (illness) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Yaya Diaby | Active | |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | Active | Winfield (ribs) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Baker Mayfield | Active | Mayfield, who was a full practice participant Wednesday, said that he's still taking a day-by-day approach when it comes to wearing a glove to protect his dislocated right thumb, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Tykee Smith | Active | Smith posted seven tackles (one solo), an interception and a blocked extra-point attempt Sunday in a 43-13 Week 7 win against Carolina. |
| Ted Hurst III | Active | Hurst didn't record a catch on one target in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Jalon Daniels | Active | Daniels was back in his primary reserve role behind Baker Mayfield in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Billy Schrauth | Active | |
| DeMonte Capehart | Active | |
| Ayden Garnes | Active | |
| Cade Otton | Active | Otton failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Sean Tucker | Active | Tucker rushed seven times for 52 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win against Carolina. |
| Tez Johnson | Active | Johnson caught both of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Active | Godwin secured four of five targets for 27 yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. |
| Chase McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin made both of his field-goal tries while going 5-for-5 on PATs during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Bucky Irving | Active | Irving rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns while bringing in one of two targets for four yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. He also committed a fumble that stayed with Tampa Bay. |
| Zyon McCollum | Active | McCollum (illness) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Panthers, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| David Sills V | Active | Sills (hamstring) was activated from injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Calijah Kancey | Active | |
| Benjamin Morrison | Active | Morrison (quadriceps) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
61.9°F, wind 0.0 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (LAR): Travel note unavailable (venue coordinates missing).