Sun, Jan 3 at 12:00 AM ET · EverBank Stadium
Expected score: WSH 15.8 – JAX 30.4
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): WSH 4.4 · JAX 1.29
Team ratings (Elo): WSH 1428.6 vs JAX 1576.0. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
WSH (1-4-1) — 75 days rest
Last 5: 1-3-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 19, 2026 | SF | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYG | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | IND | L | 13-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SEA | W | 33-31 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DAL | L | 20-37 |
JAX (4-2) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 18, 2026 | HOU | L | 31-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PHI | W | 19-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CIN | W | 22-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NE | W | 35-6 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DEN | L | 13-20 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
WSH
| Treylon Burks | Questionable | Burks (foot) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Nick Allegretti | Questionable | questionable |
| John Bates | Questionable | Bates was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to a shoulder injury. |
| Laremy Tunsil | Injured Reserve | Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Javon Kinlaw | Doubtful | Head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday that Kinlaw (knee) is "unlikely" to play against the Eagles on Sunday, Zach Selby of the Commanders' official site reports. |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | Injured Reserve | The Commanders designated Newton (pectoral) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Wednesday. |
| Terry McLaurin | Injured Reserve | The Commanders placed McLaurin (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Jaylin Lane | Injured Reserve | Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
| Charles Omenihu | Questionable | questionable |
| Stefon Diggs | Active | Diggs (hand/hamstring) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Van Jefferson | Active | The Commanders signed Jefferson to the active roster Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Marcus Mariota | Active | Mariota (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Antonio Williams | Active | Coach Dan Quinn noted Monday that with Terry McLaurin (knee) out for the season, Stefon Diggs' workload isn't expected to change much, however others, notably Williams, should see added opportunities in McLaurin's looming absence, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Sonny Styles | Active | Styles finished Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers with 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense. |
| Drew Stevens | Active | Stevens made his only field-goal try and converted both of his extra-point attempts during Monday's 23-17 loss at San Francisco. |
| Austin Ekeler | Active | Ekeler logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for four yards during the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday. |
| Dyami Brown | Active | Brown hauled in his only target for six yards during Monday's 23-17 loss versus San Francisco. |
| Jeremy McNichols | Active | McNichols accrued five rushes for 13 yards during Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers. |
| T.J. Maguranyanga | Active | |
| Isaac Yiadom | Active | |
| Tanoa Togiai | Active | |
| Fabian Moreau | Active | |
| Chig Okonkwo | Active | Okonkwo brought in all seven targets for 69 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Rachaad White | Active | White rushed seven times for 27 yards and brought in four of five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Jayden Daniels | Active | Daniels completed 29 of 40 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four rushes for 10 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
JAX
| Antonio Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (ankle) sat out practice both Wednesday and Thursday. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Jakobi Meyers | Questionable | Meyers (hamstring) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jahlani Tavai | Questionable | questionable |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | Questionable | questionable |
| Anton Harrison | Injured Reserve | Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| Ross Matiscik | Questionable | questionable |
| Montaric Brown | Active | Brown (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Foyesade Oluokun | Active | Oluokun logged eight tackles (four solo) in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans in London on Sunday. |
| Josh Cameron | Active | Cameron didn't garner a target and recorded 46 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Cam Little | Active | Little made his sole field-goal attempt and all four of his PATs in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans on Sunday in London. |
| Nate Boerkircher | Active | Boerkircher caught both of his targets for eight yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Jalen Huskey | Active | |
| Albert Regis | Active | |
| Wesley Williams | Active | |
| CJ Williams | Active | |
| Brenton Strange | Active | Strange caught five of seven targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Active | Rodriguez rushed 11 times for 55 yards while failing to reel in his only target during Sunday's 34-31 loss to Houston. |
| Travis Hunter | Active | Hunter caught all four of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. He also recorded three tackles and an interception. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Active | Thomas didn't haul in either of his two targets during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. |
| Parker Washington | Active | Washington caught four of 11 targets for 64 yards in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Trevor Lawrence | Active | Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. He added 11 rushing yards on three carries. |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Active | Tuten carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards and caught all four of his targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Ameer Abdullah | Active | |
| Eric Murray | Active | Murray (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
62.1°F, wind 3.8 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (WSH): ~652 miles, no time-zone change