Sun, Jan 3 at 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
Expected score: LV 21.1 – ARI 25.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LV 2.39 · ARI 1.72
Team ratings (Elo): LV 1414.2 vs ARI 1406.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LV (3-4) — 70 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (4 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LAR | L | 21-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | BUF | L | 30-33 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NE | L | 17-45 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | KC | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NO | W | 35-27 |
ARI (2-5) — 70 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | DEN | L | 16-30 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAR | W | 18-16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DET | L | 21-45 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NYG | L | 24-36 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SF | L | 30-36 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
LV
| Ian Thomas | Questionable | Thomas (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Thursday. |
| Jack Bech | Injured Reserve | Bech (forearm) practiced fully Thursday. |
| Jackson Powers-Johnson | Questionable | questionable |
| Patrick Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (neck) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Anthony Galaviz of The Fresno Bee reports. |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | Questionable | questionable |
| DJ Glaze | Questionable | questionable |
| Brock Bowers | Active | Bowers (calf) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Quay Walker | Active | |
| Jeremy Chinn | Active | Chinn finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to the Rams with seven tackles (three solo). He also recovered a fumble. |
| Nakobe Dean | Active | Dean produced 12 tackles and an interception in Sunday's loss to the Rams. |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | Active | The Raiders reinstated Thornton (hamstring) from injured reserve Tuesday. |
| Cody White | Active | White caught one of three targets for four yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Fernando Mendoza | Active | Mendoza did not appear in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Jalen Nailor | Active | Nailor caught two of five targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Kirk Cousins | Active | Head coach Klint Kubiak said that Cousins will remain the Raiders' starting quarterback heading into Sunday's game against the Jets, Paul Gutierrez of the team's official site reports. "There is no controversy," Kubiak said. "He is playing at a very high level." |
| Thomas Booker IV | Active | |
| Dalton Johnson | Active | |
| Tristin McCollum | Active | |
| Cian Slone | Active | |
| Bryce Cabeldue | Active | |
| Tre Tucker | Active | Tucker secured five of 12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Michael Mayer | Active | Mayer caught all three targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Mike Washington Jr. | Active | Washington rushed six times for 27 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Ashton Jeanty | Active | Jeanty rushed eight times for 15 yards and brought in all eight targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Aidan O'Connell | Active | O'Connell (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Raiders' emergency third quarterback against the Rams on Sunday. |
ARI
| Mack Wilson Sr. | Questionable | Wilson (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Michael Wilson | Questionable | Wilson (ribs) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Tyler Allgeier | Questionable | Allgeier (toe) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Jeremiyah Love | Questionable | Love (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Hjalte Froholdt | Questionable | questionable |
| Andrew Wingard | Questionable | Wingard (knee) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| Elijah Wilkinson | Questionable | questionable |
| Jalen Brooks | Injured Reserve | The Cardinals placed Brooks (wrist) on injured reserve Tuesday. |
| Max Melton | Questionable | questionable |
| Walter Nolen III | Questionable | questionable |
| Jon Gaines II | Questionable | questionable |
| Tip Reiman | Out | Head coach Mike LaFleur stated he's "not too sure" if Reiman (ankle) will play this season, Dani Sureck of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| James Conner | Injured Reserve | When asked Monday if Conner (foot) will play this season, coach Mike LaFleur said "potentially," Dani Sureck of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| Carson Beck | Active | Beck (back) practiced in full Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Kei'Trel Clark | Active | |
| Zaven Collins | Active | |
| Budda Baker | Active | Baker logged two tackles (one solo) during Sundays' 30-16 loss to Denver. |
| Jack Gibbens | Active | Gibbens recorded seven tackles (four solo) in a 30-16 loss to the Broncos on Sunday. |
| Elijah Higgins | Active | Higgins caught all three of his targets for 17 yards and made one tackle on kick coverage in the Cardinals' 30-16 loss to the Broncos on Sunday. |
| Kendrick Bourne | Active | Bourne caught three of six targets for nine yards during Sunday's 30-16 loss versus the Broncos. |
| Albert Reese IV | Active | |
| Bam Knight | Active | Knight accrued seven carries for 48 yards and reeled in three of five targets for 15 yards during Sunday's 30-16 defeat to the Broncos. |
| Jacoby Brissett | Active | Brissett completed 27 of 48 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 16 yards in Sunday's 30-16 loss to the Broncos. |
| Chad Ryland | Active | Ryland went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and converted his only extra-point attempt during Sunday's 30-16 loss to Denver. |
| Trey McBride | Active | McBride caught 10 of 13 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 loss to the Broncos. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (LV): ~243 miles, 1h time-zone shift east