Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · Bank of America Stadium
Expected score: ATL 21.4 – CAR 24.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): ATL 2.33 · CAR 1.75
Team ratings (Elo): ATL 1490.8 vs CAR 1475.5. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
ATL (3-4) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SF | W | 29-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CHI | L | 23-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | BAL | L | 23-30 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | NO | W | 45-24 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | GB | W | 35-14 |
CAR (3-4) — 72 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 29, 2026 | GB | L | 19-27 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | TB | L | 13-43 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PHI | W | 25-14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DET | W | 32-26 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CLE | L | 18-21 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | CAR 20 - ATL 38 | ATL |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ATL 38 - CAR 44 | CAR |
| Sep 21, 2025 | CAR 30 - ATL 0 | CAR |
| Nov 16, 2025 | ATL 27 - CAR 30 | CAR |
| Sep 20, 2026 | ATL 3 - CAR 34 | CAR |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
ATL
| A.J. Terrell Jr. | Questionable | Terrell (groin) was limited during Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| C.J. Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (groin) was limited in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Kendal Daniels | Questionable | Daniels (Achilles) was limited in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Divine Deablo | Questionable | Deablo (forearm) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Questionable | Zaccheaus (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Cameron Thomas | Questionable | questionable |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Questionable | Robinson (hamstring) did not practice Thursday for the second day in a row, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. |
| Charles Snowden | Questionable | questionable |
| Jawaan Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| LaCale London | Questionable | questionable |
| Samson Ebukam | Questionable | questionable |
| Avieon Terrell | Questionable | questionable |
| Billy Bowman Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Xavier Watts | Active | Watts notched seven tackles (three solo) and forced a fumble Sunday in a 29-20 Week 7 victory against the 49ers. |
| Jessie Bates III | Active | Bates registered nine tackles (two solo), two defensed passes (including an interception) and one forced fumble Sunday in a 29-20 victory over San Francisco. |
| Harold Perkins Jr. | Active | Perkins tallied nine tackles (four solo) in Sunday's 29-20 Week 7 win over the 49ers. |
| Zachariah Branch | Active | Branch brought in one of two targets for nine yards, logged an eight-yard carry and returned his lone kickoff for 61 yards during the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Austin Hooper | Active | Hooper caught both of his targets for 21 yards in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Jahan Dotson | Active | Dotson caught one pass on three targets for six yards during Sundays' 29-20 win over San Francisco. |
| Nick Muse | Active | Muse caught both of his targets for two yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Khalil Herbert | Active | Herbert reverted to the Falcons' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Jack Strand | Active | |
| Andy Dalton | Active | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | Active | Pitts brought in all five targets for 22 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Active | Penix completed 25 of 34 passes for 213 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions and added five carries for minus-1 yard in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. He also recovered a fumble. |
CAR
| Corey Bullock | Questionable | Bullock (quadriceps) exited Thursday's 27-19 loss to Green Bay and did not return, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports. |
| Will Lee III | Questionable | Lee is dealing with a hamstring injury and is doubtful to return to Thursday's Week 8 matchup against Green Bay, Joe Person of The Athletic reports. |
| Akayleb Evans | Injured Reserve | Evans (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Panthers on Thursday, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| Bobby Brown III | Out | Brown (hand) is inactive for Thursday night's matchup against the Packers, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official website reports. |
| Haynes King | Out | King (coach's decision) is inactive but operating as the Panthers' emergency No. 3 quarterback against the Packers on Thursday night, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | Out | Sanders (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday night's matchup with Green Bay, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| AJ Dillon | Out | Dillon (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday night's contest against the Packers, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| Torricelli Simpkins III | Out | Simpkins (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Packers. |
| Damien Lewis | Out | Lewis (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Packers. |
| Jaelan Phillips | Out | Phillips (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Thursday night's game against the Packers. |
| Taylor Moton | Injured Reserve | The Panthers placed Moton (lower leg) on injured reserve Monday. |
| Bryce Young | Active | Young has been playing through a left knee issue since initially suffering the injury in Week 3 against the Browns, Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports. |
| Ryan Fitzgerald | Active | Fitzgerald made both field-goal attempts and converted his only extra-point try in Thursday's 27-19 loss to Green Bay. |
| Jalen Coker | Active | Coker secured two of five targets for 37 yards and a touchdown in the Panthers' 27-19 loss to the Packers on Thursday. He also lost a fumble. |
| Chuba Hubbard | Active | Hubbard rushed 22 times for 81 yards and a touchdown and brought in seven of eight targets for 38 yards in the Panthers' 27-19 loss to the Packers on Thursday. |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Active | McMillan brought in six of 11 targets for 57 yards in the Panthers' 27-19 loss to the Packers on Thursday. |
| Devin Lloyd | Active | Lloyd posted four tackles in Sunday's loss to the Buccaneers. |
| Bobby Okereke | Active | Okereke tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and a defensed pass in Sunday's loss to Tampa Bay. |
| John Metchie III | Active | Metchie caught two passes for 20 yards during Sunday's 43-13 defeat versus the Buccaneers. |
| Mitchell Evans | Active | Evans gathered in both targets for 39 yards during Sunday's 43-13 loss versus Tampa Bay. |
| Trevor Etienne | Active | Etienne posted six carries for eight yards, reeled in both targets for 17 yards and compiled 69 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 43-13 defeat to the Buccaneers. |
| Tommy Tremble | Active | Tremble hauled in one of two targets for eight yards during Sunday's 43-13 loss to the Buccaneers. |
| TeRah Edwards | Active | |
| Sam Hecht | Active | |
| Stone Forsythe | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
51.6°F, wind 3.8 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (ATL): ~226 miles, no time-zone change