Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · Northwest Stadium
Expected score: DAL 22.5 – WSH 23.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): DAL 2.11 · WSH 1.9
Team ratings (Elo): DAL 1474.8 vs WSH 1428.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
DAL (3-4) — 75 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 26, 2026 | PHI | W | 38-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | GB | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | TB | L | 16-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | HOU | W | 34-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BAL | L | 31-34 |
WSH (1-4-1) — 82 days rest
Last 5: 1-3-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 19, 2026 | SF | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYG | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | IND | L | 13-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SEA | W | 33-31 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DAL | L | 20-37 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | WSH 26 - DAL 34 | DAL |
| Jan 5, 2025 | DAL 19 - WSH 23 | WSH |
| Oct 19, 2025 | DAL 44 - WSH 22 | DAL |
| Dec 25, 2025 | WSH 23 - DAL 30 | DAL |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DAL 37 - WSH 20 | DAL |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
DAL
| Quinnen Williams | Questionable | Williams (hamstring) practiced in a limited fashion Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Caleb Downs | Questionable | Downs (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Dee Winters | Questionable | Winters (calf) didn't practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| KaVontae Turpin | Questionable | Turpin (ribs) was a non-participant in practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Jonathan Bullard | Injured Reserve | Bullard (calf) was designated to return from injured reserve by the Cowboys on Thursday. |
| George Pickens | Questionable | Pickens (shoulder/hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. |
| Luke Schoonmaker | Questionable | questionable |
| Drew Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| P.J. Locke | Injured Reserve | Locke (foot) has been downgraded from questionable to out for Monday's game against the Eagles. |
| Marist Liufau | Injured Reserve | Liufau (forearm) has been downgraded from questionable to out ahead of Monday night's game against the Eagles. |
| Brandon Aubrey | Active | Aubrey made all three of his field-goal attempts and all three PAT tries in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| DeMarvion Overshown | Active | Overshown posted six tackles (five solo) and two pass defenses (including one interception) during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Jake Ferguson | Active | Ferguson failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyler Goodson | Active | Goodson turned 10 carries into 38 yards and returned two kickoffs for 42 yards during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Active | Spann-Ford finished with two catches for 11 yards on two targets in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyrus Wheat | Active | |
| Ryan Flournoy | Active | Flournoy secured all four targets for 70 yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Javonte Williams | Active | Williams rushed 25 times for 155 yards and a touchdown in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Dak Prescott | Active | Prescott completed 15 of 27 passes for 212 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for eight yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. He also had a two-point conversion run. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Active | Lamb brought in five of 12 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Cobie Durant | Active | Durant (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against Philadelphia, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Broderick Jones | Active | |
| Tyler Guyton | Active | |
| Juanyeh Thomas | Active | Thomas was signed to the Cowboys' active roster Tuesday. |
| James Houston | Active |
WSH
| Javon Kinlaw | Out | out |
| Treylon Burks | Questionable | Burks (foot) participated in Friday's practice, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
| Nick Allegretti | Questionable | questionable |
| John Bates | Questionable | Bates was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to a shoulder injury. |
| Laremy Tunsil | Injured Reserve | Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | Injured Reserve | The Commanders designated Newton (pectoral) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Wednesday. |
| Terry McLaurin | Injured Reserve | The Commanders placed McLaurin (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Jaylin Lane | Injured Reserve | Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
| Charles Omenihu | Questionable | questionable |
| Stefon Diggs | Active | Diggs (hand/hamstring) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Van Jefferson | Active | The Commanders signed Jefferson to the active roster Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Marcus Mariota | Active | Mariota (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Antonio Williams | Active | Coach Dan Quinn noted Monday that with Terry McLaurin (knee) out for the season, Stefon Diggs' workload isn't expected to change much, however others, notably Williams, should see added opportunities in McLaurin's looming absence, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Sonny Styles | Active | Styles finished Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers with 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense. |
| Drew Stevens | Active | Stevens made his only field-goal try and converted both of his extra-point attempts during Monday's 23-17 loss at San Francisco. |
| Austin Ekeler | Active | Ekeler logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for four yards during the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday. |
| Dyami Brown | Active | Brown hauled in his only target for six yards during Monday's 23-17 loss versus San Francisco. |
| Jeremy McNichols | Active | McNichols accrued five rushes for 13 yards during Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers. |
| T.J. Maguranyanga | Active | |
| Isaac Yiadom | Active | |
| Tanoa Togiai | Active | |
| Fabian Moreau | Active | |
| Chig Okonkwo | Active | Okonkwo brought in all seven targets for 69 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Rachaad White | Active | White rushed seven times for 27 yards and brought in four of five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Jayden Daniels | Active | Daniels completed 29 of 40 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four rushes for 10 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
49.5°F, wind 11.2 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (DAL): ~1,207 miles, 1h time-zone shift east