Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
Expected score: JAX 25.0 – IND 21.2
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): JAX 1.73 · IND 2.37
Team ratings (Elo): JAX 1576.0 vs IND 1456.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
JAX (4-2) — 83 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 18, 2026 | HOU | L | 31-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PHI | W | 19-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CIN | W | 22-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NE | W | 35-6 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DEN | L | 13-20 |
IND (2-5) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (3 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TEN | L | 20-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PIT | L | 22-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | WSH | W | 30-13 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | HOU | W | 19-17 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2024 | JAX 37 - IND 34 | JAX |
| Jan 5, 2025 | IND 26 - JAX 23 | IND |
| Dec 7, 2025 | JAX 36 - IND 19 | JAX |
| Dec 28, 2025 | IND 17 - JAX 23 | JAX |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
JAX
| Antonio Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (ankle) sat out practice both Wednesday and Thursday. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Jakobi Meyers | Questionable | Meyers (hamstring) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jahlani Tavai | Questionable | questionable |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | Questionable | questionable |
| Anton Harrison | Injured Reserve | Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| Ross Matiscik | Questionable | questionable |
| Montaric Brown | Active | Brown (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Foyesade Oluokun | Active | Oluokun logged eight tackles (four solo) in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans in London on Sunday. |
| Josh Cameron | Active | Cameron didn't garner a target and recorded 46 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Cam Little | Active | Little made his sole field-goal attempt and all four of his PATs in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans on Sunday in London. |
| Nate Boerkircher | Active | Boerkircher caught both of his targets for eight yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Jalen Huskey | Active | |
| Albert Regis | Active | |
| Wesley Williams | Active | |
| CJ Williams | Active | |
| Brenton Strange | Active | Strange caught five of seven targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Active | Rodriguez rushed 11 times for 55 yards while failing to reel in his only target during Sunday's 34-31 loss to Houston. |
| Travis Hunter | Active | Hunter caught all four of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. He also recorded three tackles and an interception. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Active | Thomas didn't haul in either of his two targets during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. |
| Parker Washington | Active | Washington caught four of 11 targets for 64 yards in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Trevor Lawrence | Active | Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. He added 11 rushing yards on three carries. |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Active | Tuten carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards and caught all four of his targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Ameer Abdullah | Active | |
| Eric Murray | Active | Murray (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans. |
IND
| Anthony Gould | Questionable | Gould (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Drew Ogletree | Questionable | Ogletree (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | Injured Reserve | The Colts placed Taylor-Britt on injured reserve Tuesday due to a groin injury, Nathan Brown of The Indianapolis Star reports. |
| Bryce Boettcher | Questionable | questionable |
| Justin Walley | Questionable | According to head coach Shane Steichen, Walley did not return to Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota due to a knee injury, Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan Indianapolis reports. |
| Alec Pierce | Injured Reserve | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Pierce (heel) will "most likely not" have his 21-day practice window opened in Week 8, Jake Arthur of Roundtable.io reports. |
| Tyler Warren | Active | Warren (groin) is good to go for Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Mike Chappell of FOX59 reports. |
| Sauce Gardner | Active | Gardner (calf) practiced in full Thursday. |
| Matt Goncalves | Active | |
| Tim Smith | Active | |
| Jonathan Taylor | Active | Taylor told reporters Thursday that he hasn't requested a trade out of Indianapolis, Stephen Holder of ESPN.com reports. "I haven't heard anything, and I can't control that," Taylor said regarding the possibility of being traded. "Obviously, you guys know that I'm always proud to wear the horseshoe, proud to be here." |
| CJ Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was listed as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Josh Downs | Active | Downs formally requested a trade from the Colts on Wednesday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports. |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | Active | Davis-Gaither recorded seven tackles (three solo) in Sunday's loss to Minnesota. |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | Active | Adebawore finished Sunday's loss to Minnesota with five tackles (four solo), including 2.0 sacks, and a defensed pass. |
| A.J. Haulcy | Active | Haulcy produced nine tackles (five solo) in a loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| DJ Giddens | Active | Giddens did not play a single snap during Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Will Mallory | Active | Mallory did not catch any of his three targets during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota. |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Active | Alie-Cox failed to haul in either of his targets during the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Laquon Treadwell | Active | Treadwell caught both of his targets for 19 yards in the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Seth McGowan | Active | McGowan turned 11 carries into 46 yards, caught his only target for two yards and added 140 yards as a kick returner during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Keenan Allen | Active | Allen caught all three of his targets for 31 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Riley Leonard | Active | |
| Dalton Tucker | Active | |
| Daniel Jones | Active | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said that Jones will remain the team's starting quarterback in Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Mike Chappell of Fox 59 News Indianapolis reports. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (JAX): ~700 miles, no time-zone change