Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · Arrowhead Stadium
Expected score: LV 18.0 – KC 28.2
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LV 3.33 · KC 1.43
Team ratings (Elo): LV 1414.2 vs KC 1496.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LV (3-4) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (4 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LAR | L | 21-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | BUF | L | 30-33 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NE | L | 17-45 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | KC | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NO | W | 35-27 |
KC (5-1) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SEA | L | 3-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAC | W | 22-6 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LV | W | 30-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIA | W | 24-10 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | IND | W | 33-30 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | LV 20 - KC 27 | KC |
| Nov 29, 2024 | KC 19 - LV 17 | KC |
| Oct 19, 2025 | KC 31 - LV 0 | KC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | LV 14 - KC 12 | LV |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LV 27 - KC 30 | KC |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
LV
| Ian Thomas | Questionable | Thomas (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Thursday. |
| Jack Bech | Injured Reserve | Bech (forearm) practiced fully Thursday. |
| Jackson Powers-Johnson | Questionable | questionable |
| Patrick Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (neck) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Anthony Galaviz of The Fresno Bee reports. |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | Questionable | questionable |
| DJ Glaze | Questionable | questionable |
| Brock Bowers | Active | Bowers (calf) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Quay Walker | Active | |
| Jeremy Chinn | Active | Chinn finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to the Rams with seven tackles (three solo). He also recovered a fumble. |
| Nakobe Dean | Active | Dean produced 12 tackles and an interception in Sunday's loss to the Rams. |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | Active | The Raiders reinstated Thornton (hamstring) from injured reserve Tuesday. |
| Cody White | Active | White caught one of three targets for four yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Fernando Mendoza | Active | Mendoza did not appear in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Jalen Nailor | Active | Nailor caught two of five targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Kirk Cousins | Active | Head coach Klint Kubiak said that Cousins will remain the Raiders' starting quarterback heading into Sunday's game against the Jets, Paul Gutierrez of the team's official site reports. "There is no controversy," Kubiak said. "He is playing at a very high level." |
| Thomas Booker IV | Active | |
| Dalton Johnson | Active | |
| Tristin McCollum | Active | |
| Cian Slone | Active | |
| Bryce Cabeldue | Active | |
| Tre Tucker | Active | Tucker secured five of 12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Michael Mayer | Active | Mayer caught all three targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Mike Washington Jr. | Active | Washington rushed six times for 27 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Ashton Jeanty | Active | Jeanty rushed eight times for 15 yards and brought in all eight targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Aidan O'Connell | Active | O'Connell (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Raiders' emergency third quarterback against the Rams on Sunday. |
KC
| Mansoor Delane | Questionable | Delane (shoulder) did not practice Thursday. |
| Rashee Rice | Questionable | Rice (hamstring/knee) remained a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Travis Kelce | Questionable | Kelce (ankle) was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jaylon Moore | Questionable | Moore (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | Out | The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday. |
| L'Jarius Sneed | Questionable | questionable |
| Brashard Smith | Injured Reserve | The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Cyrus Allen | Active | Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Allen will "get a little bit more [snaps]" during Sunday's game against the Broncos, Nate Taylor of ESPN.com reports. |
| Harrison Butker | Active | Head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Butker will "probably" serve as the Chiefs' kicker in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports. |
| Chamarri Conner | Active | Conner finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to Seattle with seven tackles (two solo). |
| Nohl Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 10 tackles (four solo) and one interception. |
| Nick Bolton | Active | Bolton registered 11 tackles (six solo) during the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. |
| Drue Tranquill | Active | Tranquill finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 12 tackles (four solo). |
| Andrew Armstrong | Active | Armstrong caught one of two targets for three yards during Sunday night's 20-3 loss to Seattle. |
| Noah Gray | Active | Gray caught three passes on as many targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Emmett Johnson | Active | Johnson caught two of three passes for 17 yards and returned three kickoffs for 81 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He also added two tackles on special teams. |
| Ben VanSumeren | Active | |
| Jack Pyburn | Active | |
| Jadon Canady | Active | |
| Xavier Worthy | Active | Worthy caught three of six targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Active | Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards. |
| Kenneth Walker III | Active | Walker rushed 14 times for 36 yards while catching four of five targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Garrett Nussmeier | Active | Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday night's game against the Seahawks. |
| Cooper McDonald | Active | The Chiefs activated McDonald (knee) from injured reserve Saturday. |
| Jaydn Ott | Active | The Chiefs signed Ott from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.7°F, wind 3.4 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (LV): ~1,149 miles, 2h time-zone shift east