Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
Expected score: LAC 16.4 – DEN 29.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LAC 4.07 · DEN 1.33
Team ratings (Elo): LAC 1474.2 vs DEN 1603.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LAC (0-6) — 83 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 18, 2026 | KC | L | 6-22 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DEN | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SEA | L | 23-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BUF | L | 16-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LV | L | 14-26 |
DEN (5-2) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | ARI | W | 30-16 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | SEA | W | 17-14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LAC | W | 23-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SF | L | 14-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAR | W | 30-26 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | DEN 16 - LAC 23 | LAC |
| Dec 19, 2024 | LAC 34 - DEN 27 | LAC |
| Sep 21, 2025 | LAC 23 - DEN 20 | LAC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | DEN 19 - LAC 3 | DEN |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LAC 17 - DEN 23 | DEN |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
LAC
| Brenen Thompson | Questionable | Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring) did not practice Thursday. |
| Donte Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Tre' Harris | Questionable | Harris (hamstring) remained limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ladd McConkey | Questionable | McConkey (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Denzel Perryman | Injured Reserve | Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Deane Leonard | Questionable | Leonard (concussion) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Derwin James Jr. | Doubtful | James (hamstring) suffered a setback in his recovery and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Rams, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports. |
| Rodney Shelley | Questionable | questionable |
| Kayode Awosika | Questionable | questionable |
| Bud Dupree | Active | Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday. |
| Joe Alt | Active | Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday. |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Active | Lambert-Smith caught five of nine targets for 32 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss at Kansas City. He also lost a fumble. |
| Cameron Dicker | Active | Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Charlie Kolar | Active | Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Kimani Vidal | Active | Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Keaton Mitchell | Active | Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Quentin Johnston | Active | Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Justin Herbert | Active | Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards. |
| Omarion Hampton | Active | Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Daiyan Henley | Active | Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs. |
| Jamaree Caldwell | Active | |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | Active | |
| Kendall Williamson | Active | |
| Elijah Molden | Active | |
| Justin Eboigbe | Active |
DEN
| Talanoa Hufanga | Questionable | Hufanga (ankle) did not participate at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Zach Allen | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was a limited participant at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Jaylen Waddle | Questionable | Waddle (chest) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| RJ Harvey | Questionable | Harvey (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Brandon Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Garett Bolles | Questionable | questionable |
| Tyler Badie | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Badie (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonah Elliss | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Elliss (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | Active | Mims (ankle) practiced fully Thursday,Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports. |
| Pat Surtain II | Active | Surtain (ankle) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Alex Singleton | Active | Singleton recorded 19 tackles (12 solo) including 1.0 sacks during Sunday's 30-16 win at Arizona. |
| Evan Engram | Active | Engram caught one of three targets for two yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Troy Franklin | Active | Franklin failed to bring in either of his two targets in the Broncos' 30-16 win over the Cardinals on Sunday. |
| Kage Casey | Active | |
| Tyler Onyedim | Active | |
| Jordan Jackson | Active | |
| Dallen Bentley | Active | |
| Courtland Sutton | Active | Sutton caught three of five targets for 45 yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Jonah Coleman | Active | Coleman (ankle) rushed nine times for 54 yards and caught both of his targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| J.K. Dobbins | Active | Dobbins rushed six times for 23 yards and a touchdown and wasn't targeted in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Bo Nix | Active | Nix completed 15 of 29 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 73 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Wil Lutz | Active | Lutz went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Sam Ehlinger | Active | Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the emergency third quarterback in Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Jonathon Cooper | Active | Cooper had his roster exemption removed by the Broncos on Saturday and is available for Sunday's road game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | Active | Abrams-Draine recorded six tackles (four solo), three pass breakups, including an interception, and one forced fumble in Thursday night's 17-14 overtime win over the Seahawks. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
44.4°F, wind 1.6 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (LAC): Travel note unavailable (venue coordinates missing).