Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · Gillette Stadium
Expected score: MIA 15.1 – NE 31.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): MIA 4.78 · NE 1.26
Team ratings (Elo): MIA 1443.1 vs NE 1608.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
MIA (1-5) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYJ | W | 28-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CIN | L | 24-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-15 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | KC | L | 10-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SF | L | 13-35 |
NE (4-3) — 79 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 22, 2026 | CHI | L | 24-30 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NYJ | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LV | W | 45-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BUF | W | 29-26 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | JAX | L | 6-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2024 | NE 10 - MIA 15 | MIA |
| Nov 24, 2024 | MIA 34 - NE 15 | MIA |
| Sep 14, 2025 | MIA 27 - NE 33 | NE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NE 38 - MIA 10 | NE |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
MIA
| Jared Wayne | Questionable | Wayne (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Will Kacmarek | Questionable | Kacmarek (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| JuJu Brents | Questionable | Brents (neck/concussion) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Greg Dulcich | Questionable | Dulcich (ankle) remained limited at practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Malik Washington | Questionable | Washington (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Kadyn Proctor | Questionable | Proctor sustained a concussion during Sunday's game against the Jets, Alain Poupart of SI.com reports. |
| Michael Taaffe | Questionable | questionable |
| Dante Trader Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Tucker Addington | Questionable | questionable |
| Reese Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| Robert Beal Jr. | Active | Beal (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Willie Gay Jr. | Active | Gay (illness) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jaylen Wright | Active | Wright (quadriceps/foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jacob Rodriguez | Active | Rodriguez tallied four tackles (one solo) during Miami's win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Jordyn Brooks | Active | Brooks posted nine tackles (five solo) during the Dolphins' win Sunday over the Jets. |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Active | Coleman did not catch his only target in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Chris Bell | Active | Bell caught three of his four targets for 25 yards in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Kaytron Allen | Active | Allen logged six snaps on special teams and didn't show up on the box score otherwise during Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Zane Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | Active | |
| Marcellas Dial Jr. | Active | |
| Jalen Tolbert | Active | |
| Caleb Douglas | Active | Douglas (ankle) caught two of three targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Malik Willis | Active | Willis completed 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns while rushing six times for 39 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Ollie Gordon II | Active | Gordon rushed 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown while catching one of three targets for no gain in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
NE
| TreVeyon Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (illness) isn't practicing Friday, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports. |
| A.J. Brown | Questionable | Brown (ankle/knee) was not spotted at Friday's practice, Evan Lazar of the Patriots' official site reports. |
| Morgan Moses | Questionable | questionable |
| DaQuan Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Ben Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | Injured Reserve | Vera-Tucker (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Channing Canada | Active | Canada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Karon Prunty | Active | Prunty (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Carlton Davis III | Active | Davis (neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Joshua Farmer | Active | |
| Behren Morton | Active | |
| Marcus Jones | Active | Jones registered nine tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, and returned one punt for 19 yards in Thursday's loss to the Bears. |
| Christian Elliss | Active | Elliss tallied 13 tackles (eight solo) in a Week 7 loss to Chicago on Thursday. |
| Kyle Williams | Active | Williams returned two kickoffs for 47 yards and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Corey Kiner | Active | Kiner rushed four times for 13 yards in Thursday's Week 7 loss to Chicago. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards. |
| Eli Raridon | Active | Raridon caught three of four targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in Thursday's Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Efton Chism III | Active | Chism caught his sole target for 16 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| DeMario Douglas | Active | Douglas caught three of his four targets for 23 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Hunter Henry | Active | Henry secured all seven targets for 71 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Andy Borregales | Active | Borregales made his only field-goal attempt and was successful on all three extra-point tries Thursday in a Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Active | Stevenson rushed six times for 22 yards and brought in all five targets for 93 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Drake Maye | Active | Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding four rushes for 26 yards and another score in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Craig Woodson | Active | Woodson (shoulder) is officially active for Thursday's game against the Bears. |
| Kevin Byard | Active | Byard (chest) is officially active for Thursday's game at Chicago. |
| Christian Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez (illness) is listed as active for Thursday night's game against the Bears. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.4°F, wind 6.5 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (MIA): ~1,226 miles, no time-zone change