Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
Expected score: PIT 22.4 – BAL 23.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): PIT 2.13 · BAL 1.89
Team ratings (Elo): PIT 1537.9 vs BAL 1493.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
PIT (5-2) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NO | W | 16-10 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TB | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | IND | W | 34-22 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CIN | W | 30-27 |
BAL (4-3) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CIN | L | 13-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CLE | L | 10-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | ATL | W | 30-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TEN | W | 24-18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DAL | W | 34-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | PIT 18 - BAL 16 | PIT |
| Dec 21, 2024 | BAL 34 - PIT 17 | BAL |
| Dec 7, 2025 | BAL 22 - PIT 27 | PIT |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PIT 26 - BAL 24 | PIT |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
PIT
| Ben Skowronek | Questionable | Skowronek (calf) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports. |
| Alex Highsmith | Questionable | questionable |
| Doneiko Slaughter | Questionable | questionable |
| Brandin Echols | Questionable | questionable |
| Sebastian Joseph-Day | Injured Reserve | Joseph-Day (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Steelers on Thursday, Teresa Varley of the team's official website reports. |
| Jalen Ramsey | Active | |
| Payton Wilson | Active | Wilson totaled six tackles (three solo) and an interception during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| Patrick Queen | Active | Queen compiled 10 tackles (seven solo), including 1.0 sacks, during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| Germie Bernard | Active | Bernard caught three of five targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Brandon Smith | Active | Smith reverted to the Steelers' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Darnell Washington | Active | Washington caught his lone target for a four-yard touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints in Paris. |
| Will Howard | Active | |
| Drew Allar | Active | |
| Eli Heidenreich | Active | |
| Terell Smith | Active | |
| Pat Freiermuth | Active | Freiermuth caught two of four targets for 20 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Chris Boswell | Active | Boswell made each of his three field-goal attempts and his lone extra-point try in a 16-10 victory over the Saints on Sunday in Paris. |
| DK Metcalf | Active | Metcalf two of six targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Rico Dowdle | Active | Dowdle carried the ball nine times for 41 yards and caught all six of his targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over New Orleans. |
| Aaron Rodgers | Active | Rodgers completed 19 of 30 passes for 212 passes and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. He added six yards on three carries. |
| Jaylen Warren | Active | Warren carried the ball 18 times for 101 yards and caught three of four targets for 36 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| DeShon Elliott | Active | Elliott (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris. |
| Mason Rudolph | Active | Rudolph is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports. |
| T.J. Watt | Active | Watt (calf) practiced fully Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Saints. |
| Jaquan Brisker | Active | Brisker posted seven tackles (four solo) during the Steelers' 26-19 overtime win over the Buccaneers on Sunday. |
BAL
| Olaivavega Ioane | Questionable | Ioane (knee) was a limited participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Tampa | Injured Reserve | Tampa (knee) was a full participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| Roquan Smith | Questionable | Smith (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Kyle Hamilton | Questionable | Hamilton (knee) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Lamar Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports. |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | Questionable | Hawkins (knee) was a non-participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Adam Randall | Injured Reserve | The Ravens opened Randall's (neck) 21-day practice window Wednesday. |
| John Simpson | Questionable | questionable |
| Tavius Robinson | Injured Reserve | The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Broderick Washington Jr. | Active | Washington (ankle) logged a full practice Thursday. |
| Ronnie Stanley | Active | Stanley (toe) practiced in full Thursday. |
| John Jenkins | Active | |
| Josh Cuevas | Active | Cuevas caught two of three targets for 35 yards during the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | Active | Lane caught three of five targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Justice Hill | Active | Hill took three carries for seven yards and caught three of four targets for 26 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss versus the Bengals. |
| Rashod Bateman | Active | Bateman caught two of four targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Andrew Vorhees | Active | |
| Elijah Sarratt | Active | |
| Mark Andrews | Active | Andrews caught three of four targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Tyler Huntley | Active | Huntley completed 23 of 34 passes for 298 yards with a touchdown and an interception while adding three rushes for 12 yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Tyler Loop | Active | Loop went 2-for-2 on field-goal tries and made his only PAT during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Derrick Henry | Active | Henry rushed 17 times for 45 yards and brought in one of two target for four yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Zay Flowers | Active | Flowers brought in eight of 11 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Cam Jurgens | Active | Jurgens (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Bengals. |
| Matt Hibner | Active | Hibner (hand) was a full participant at practice Thursday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
49.5°F, wind 11.2 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (PIT): ~197 miles, no time-zone change