Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · State Farm Stadium
Expected score: SF 27.4 – ARI 18.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): SF 1.49 · ARI 3.05
Team ratings (Elo): SF 1596.3 vs ARI 1406.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
SF (6-1) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | ATL | L | 20-29 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | WSH | W | 23-17 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | SEA | W | 32-29 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DEN | W | 24-14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | ARI | W | 36-30 |
ARI (2-5) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | DEN | L | 16-30 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAR | W | 18-16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DET | L | 21-45 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NYG | L | 24-36 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SF | L | 30-36 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2024 | SF 23 - ARI 24 | ARI |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ARI 47 - SF 24 | ARI |
| Sep 21, 2025 | SF 16 - ARI 15 | SF |
| Nov 16, 2025 | ARI 22 - SF 41 | SF |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SF 36 - ARI 30 | SF |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
SF
| Marques Sigle | Questionable | questionable |
| Garret Wallow | Questionable | questionable |
| Luke Gifford | Questionable | questionable |
| Upton Stout | Questionable | Stout (shoulder) was only active as an emergency depth option during Sunday's loss to the Falcons, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reported Monday. |
| Nick Bosa | Questionable | San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Bosa (knee) "has a chance" to return to action Nov. 8 versus the Raiders following a Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | Questionable | Samuel (hamstring) has a chance to return following the 49ers' Week 8 bye, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. |
| Demarcus Robinson | Injured Reserve | 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan reiterated Monday that Robinson (ankle) has a chance to return following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | Injured Reserve | Stribling (ankle) remains on track to return in December, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| Mike Evans | Questionable | Evans (Achilles) is expected to return after San Francisco's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SF Standard reports. |
| Christian McCaffrey | Questionable | McCaffrey is dealing with a mild hamstring strain rather than a quadriceps injury, and the 49ers believe he'll be ready following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SF Standard reports. |
| Dre Greenlaw | Active | Greenlaw posted 12 tackles (four solo) in Sunday's loss to the Falcons. |
| Fred Warner | Active | Warner recorded 13 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a Week 7 loss to Atlanta. |
| Christian Kirk | Active | Kirk played 20 snaps on offense but didn't show up in the box score otherwise during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Brandin Cooks | Active | Cooks caught one of three targets for 13 yards during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Jacob Cowing | Active | Cowing caught three of five passes for 38 yards, added a 10-yard carry and returned one kickoff for 28 yards during Sunday's 29-20 loss to the Falcons. |
| Jordan James | Active | James logged a six-yard carry, turned his lone target into an 11-yard catch and registered 119 yards on four kickoff returns during the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kurtis Rourke | Active | |
| Brock Purdy | Active | Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 288 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and added two carries for five yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kyle Juszczyk | Active | Juszczyk caught all three of his targets for 11 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Eddy Pineiro | Active | Pineiro did not attempt a field goal while going 2-for-3 on PATs in Sunday's 26-20 loss to the Falcons. |
| Jordan Watkins | Active | Watkins brought in three of six targets for 56 yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kaelon Black | Active | Black rushed 12 times for 63 yards and a touchdown and brought in one of three targets for minus-4 yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. He also lost a fumble and returned one kickoff for 34 yards. |
| George Kittle | Active | Kittle brought in eight of 10 targets for 88 yards and lost a fumble in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Siran Neal | Active | |
| Mykel Williams | Active | Williams (knee) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons. |
ARI
| Mack Wilson Sr. | Questionable | Wilson (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Michael Wilson | Questionable | Wilson (ribs) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Tyler Allgeier | Questionable | Allgeier (toe) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Jeremiyah Love | Questionable | Love (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Hjalte Froholdt | Questionable | questionable |
| Andrew Wingard | Questionable | Wingard (knee) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| Elijah Wilkinson | Questionable | questionable |
| Jalen Brooks | Injured Reserve | The Cardinals placed Brooks (wrist) on injured reserve Tuesday. |
| Max Melton | Questionable | questionable |
| Walter Nolen III | Questionable | questionable |
| Jon Gaines II | Questionable | questionable |
| Tip Reiman | Out | Head coach Mike LaFleur stated he's "not too sure" if Reiman (ankle) will play this season, Dani Sureck of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| James Conner | Injured Reserve | When asked Monday if Conner (foot) will play this season, coach Mike LaFleur said "potentially," Dani Sureck of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| Carson Beck | Active | Beck (back) practiced in full Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Kei'Trel Clark | Active | |
| Zaven Collins | Active | |
| Budda Baker | Active | Baker logged two tackles (one solo) during Sundays' 30-16 loss to Denver. |
| Jack Gibbens | Active | Gibbens recorded seven tackles (four solo) in a 30-16 loss to the Broncos on Sunday. |
| Elijah Higgins | Active | Higgins caught all three of his targets for 17 yards and made one tackle on kick coverage in the Cardinals' 30-16 loss to the Broncos on Sunday. |
| Kendrick Bourne | Active | Bourne caught three of six targets for nine yards during Sunday's 30-16 loss versus the Broncos. |
| Albert Reese IV | Active | |
| Bam Knight | Active | Knight accrued seven carries for 48 yards and reeled in three of five targets for 15 yards during Sunday's 30-16 defeat to the Broncos. |
| Jacoby Brissett | Active | Brissett completed 27 of 48 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 16 yards in Sunday's 30-16 loss to the Broncos. |
| Chad Ryland | Active | Ryland went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and converted his only extra-point attempt during Sunday's 30-16 loss to Denver. |
| Trey McBride | Active | McBride caught 10 of 13 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 loss to the Broncos. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (SF): ~608 miles, 1h time-zone shift east