Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · Caesars Superdome
Expected score: TB 21.3 – NO 24.9
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): TB 2.35 · NO 1.74
Team ratings (Elo): TB 1457.9 vs NO 1445.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
TB (2-5) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CAR | W | 43-13 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PIT | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | DAL | W | 24-16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | GB | L | 14-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIN | L | 16-23 |
NO (2-5) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | PIT | L | 10-16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NYG | W | 34-27 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIN | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | ATL | L | 24-45 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LV | L | 27-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | NO 27 - TB 51 | TB |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TB 27 - NO 19 | TB |
| Oct 26, 2025 | NO 3 - TB 23 | TB |
| Dec 7, 2025 | TB 20 - NO 24 | NO |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
TB
| Emeka Egbuka | Out | Egbuka (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Scott Smith of the Bucs' official site reports. |
| Luke Goedeke | Questionable | Goedeke (calf) did not participate at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Kenny Gainwell | Questionable | Gainwell (hip) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Josh Hayes | Injured Reserve | Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| Christian Rozeboom | Injured Reserve | Rozeboom (finger) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Josiah Trotter | Active | Trotter (illness) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Yaya Diaby | Active | |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | Active | Winfield (ribs) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Baker Mayfield | Active | Mayfield, who was a full practice participant Wednesday, said that he's still taking a day-by-day approach when it comes to wearing a glove to protect his dislocated right thumb, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Tykee Smith | Active | Smith posted seven tackles (one solo), an interception and a blocked extra-point attempt Sunday in a 43-13 Week 7 win against Carolina. |
| Ted Hurst III | Active | Hurst didn't record a catch on one target in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Jalon Daniels | Active | Daniels was back in his primary reserve role behind Baker Mayfield in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Billy Schrauth | Active | |
| DeMonte Capehart | Active | |
| Ayden Garnes | Active | |
| Cade Otton | Active | Otton failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Sean Tucker | Active | Tucker rushed seven times for 52 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win against Carolina. |
| Tez Johnson | Active | Johnson caught both of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Active | Godwin secured four of five targets for 27 yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. |
| Chase McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin made both of his field-goal tries while going 5-for-5 on PATs during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Bucky Irving | Active | Irving rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns while bringing in one of two targets for four yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. He also committed a fumble that stayed with Tampa Bay. |
| Zyon McCollum | Active | McCollum (illness) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Panthers, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| David Sills V | Active | Sills (hamstring) was activated from injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Calijah Kancey | Active | |
| Benjamin Morrison | Active | Morrison (quadriceps) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
NO
| Cesar Ruiz | Questionable | questionable |
| Nathan Shepherd | Questionable | questionable |
| Justin Reid | Questionable | Reid (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris. |
| CJ Donaldson | Questionable | Donaldson (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris. |
| Carl Granderson | Active | Granderson totaled four tackles, including 1.5 sacks, in Sunday's Week 7 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Pete Werner | Active | Werner finished Sunday's loss to the Steelers with eight tackles (three solo). |
| Jonas Sanker | Active | Sanker posted nine tackles (seven solo) in Sunday's Week 7 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Noah Fant | Active | Fant gathered in all two targets for 11 yards during Sunday's 16-10 defeat against Pittsburgh. |
| Bryce Lance | Active | Lance reeled in all two targets for 12 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Kendre Miller | Active | Miller rushed eight times for six yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Paris. |
| Barion Brown | Active | Brown hauled in all three targets for 57 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Mike Reid | Active | |
| Tyree Wilson | Active | |
| John Ridgeway III | Active | |
| Treyton Welch | Active | |
| Zach Wilson | Active | |
| Juwan Johnson | Active | Johnson caught one of three targets for seven yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Devaughn Vele | Active | Vele caught all five of his targets for 54 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Alvin Kamara | Active | Kamara carried the ball six times for five yards and caught all seven of his targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Daniel Carlson | Active | Carlson went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during Sundays' 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Paris. |
| Tyler Shough | Active | Shough completed 30 of 38 passes for 278 yards and one touchdown with one interception in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. He added seven rushing yards on three carries. |
| Chris Olave | Active | Olave caught six of 10 targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Spencer Rattler | Active | Rattler is active and will remain the Saints' No. 2 quarterback for Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. |
| Anfernee Jennings | Active | Jennings (knee) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers. |
| Kaden Elliss | Active | Elliss (calf) doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Steelers. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (TB): ~496 miles, 1h time-zone shift west