Sun, Jan 10 at 12:00 AM ET · Reliant Stadium
Expected score: TEN 15.9 – HOU 30.3
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): TEN 4.34 · HOU 1.3
Team ratings (Elo): TEN 1379.1 vs HOU 1523.4. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
TEN (1-6) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | IND | W | 26-20 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | HOU | L | 3-26 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BAL | L | 18-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NYG | L | 7-12 |
HOU (2-5) — 76 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYG | L | 21-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | JAX | W | 34-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | TEN | W | 26-3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DAL | L | 30-34 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | IND | L | 17-19 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | HOU 27 - TEN 32 | TEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TEN 14 - HOU 23 | HOU |
| Sep 28, 2025 | HOU 26 - TEN 0 | HOU |
| Nov 16, 2025 | TEN 13 - HOU 16 | HOU |
| Oct 11, 2026 | TEN 3 - HOU 26 | HOU |
Report published 2026-10-30 — availability for this game unknown. The latest available report, kept as dated context. Week numbers could not be determined; it may not reflect this game's week.
TEN
| Tyjae Spears | Questionable | Spears (knee) isn't practicing Friday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Carnell Tate | Questionable | Tate (shoulder) won't practice Friday, and his status for Sunday's game against the Bengals is in doubt, Paul Kuharsky reports. |
| Calvin Ridley | Questionable | Ridley (hip) was limited at practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| John Franklin-Myers | Questionable | questionable |
| Tommy Townsend | Questionable | Titans head coach Robert Saleh said Monday that Townsend is still being evaluated after sustaining a left knee injury in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Dorian Mausi | Injured Reserve | The Titans opened Mausi's 21-day practice window Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official website reports. |
| Jonah Laulu | Active | The Titans claimed Laulu off waivers from the Raiders on Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Amani Hooker | Active | Hooker posted five tackles (two solo) during Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | Active | Winston logged 14 tackles (eight solo) during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | Active | Hill logged 12 tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Elic Ayomanor | Active | Ayomanor caught three of his seven targets for 44 yards in the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Jaylon Jones | Active | |
| Kylen Granson | Active | |
| Jackie Marshall | Active | |
| Nicholas Singleton | Active | |
| Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson | Active | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Active | Robinson caught four of seven targets for seven yards during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Gunnar Helm | Active | Helm caught three of four targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Cam Ward | Active | Ward completed 20 of 31 passes for 181 yards with an interception in Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. He added five yards on two carries. |
| Tony Pollard | Active | Pollard carried the ball 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. He also caught all three of his targets for 26 yards. |
| Joey Slye | Active | Slye made his only field-goal attempt while going 3-for-3 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Tony Adams | Active | Adams (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns. |
| Timmy Horne | Active | The Titans signed Horne from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. |
| Alontae Taylor | Active | |
| Joshua Williams | Active | The Titans activated Williams (pectoral) from reserve/PUP on Saturday. |
HOU
| Jaylin Noel | Injured Reserve | Noel, who was placed on injured reserve earlier Wednesday, is expected to require surgery to address his toe injury and will miss the remainder of the season, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports. |
| Jalen Pitre | Questionable | questionable |
| David Montgomery | Questionable | questionable |
| Reed Blankenship | Questionable | questionable |
| Blake Fisher | Questionable | questionable |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | Active | Al-Shaair recorded nine tackles (two solo) in a Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Henry To'oTo'o | Active | To'oTo'o notched 10 tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in Sunday's Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| M.J. Stewart | Active | Stewart finished with 12 tackles (five solo), including 0.5 sacks, and a defensed pass in Sunday's overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Foster Moreau | Active | Moreau played 21 offensive snaps and nine special-teams snaps in the Texans' 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Dare Ogunbowale | Active | Ogunbowale didn't record an offensive touch or target in Sunday's 24-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Tank Dell | Active | Dell caught his only target for 43 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Kayshon Boutte | Active | Boutte caught one of two targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss versus the Giants. |
| Marlin Klein | Active | |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | Active | |
| Nate Thomas | Active | |
| Dalton Schultz | Active | Schultz caught five of six targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Active | Hutchinson caught three of six targets for 17 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added 12 rushing yards on two attempts. |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | Active | Fairbairn went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted his only PAT in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Active | Harrison caught one of four targets for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| C.J. Stroud | Active | Stroud completed 17 of 28 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added two rushing attempts for four yards and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Woody Marks | Active | Marks rushed 19 times for 66 yards and caught his only target for 15 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Nico Collins | Active | Collins caught two of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Brevin Jordan | Active | Jordan (foot) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Logan Hall | Active | |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (TEN): ~671 miles, no time-zone change